🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.